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Water temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and species biomasses from 2006-01-01 to 2100-12-31 in the Choptank and Little Choptank River complex of Chesapeake Bay (NCEI Accession 0278925)

Published by NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce | Metadata Last Checked: October 04, 2025 | Last Modified: 2023-07-05T00:00:00.000+00:00
This study examined the impact of long-term shifts in water temperature and salinity as a result of climate change on the biomasses of important fisheries species within oyster sanctuary sites in the Choptank and Little Choptank river complex in Chesapeake Bay using an Ecopath with Ecosim food web model. The model was used to evaluate changes in the oyster reef food web, with particular emphasis on impacts to striped bass (Morone saxatilis), blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), and Eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica). Eight different climate change scenarios were used to vary water temperature and salinity within Chesapeake Bay up to the year 2100 based on projections given by previous studies. The scenarios are as follows: No change: continuation of observed water temperature and salinity; High temp: Temperature increase of 4C; Low sal: Salinity decrease of 2 ppt; High sal: Salinity increase of 12 ppt; High temp & low sal: temperature increase of 4C and salinity decrease of 2 ppt; High temp & high sal: temperature increase of 4C and salinity increase of 12 ppt; Mod sal: salinity increase of 10 ppt; High temp & mod sal: temperature increase of 4C and salinity increase of 10 ppt. Data from 2006-2016 represent observed measurements, while data spanning 2017-2100 pertain to the future simulations. All values during the observed time period are yearly averages. Variable values for all scenarios (including Observed) are spatially averaged across the study area. The observed biomass measurements were estimated from a variety of sources, including field data for the region, existing models of Chesapeake Bay and a literature review (described in the Knoche et al. 2020 paper). The food web model used in this study was originally developed for the Knoche et al. paper. This study used the existing model to perform climate change simulations.

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