Spreadsheet of quantiles of change factors at 174 NOAA Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida derived from various downscaled climate datasets considering all models and all future emission scenarios evaluated (CFquantiles_future_to_historical_allmodels_allRCPs.xlsx).

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed projected future change factors for precipitation depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves at 174 NOAA Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida. The change factors were computed as the ratio of projected future to historical extreme precipitation depths fitted to extreme precipitation data from various downscaled climate datasets using a constrained maximum likelihood (CML) approach. The change factors correspond to the period 2050-2089 (centered in the year 2070) as compared to the 1966-2005 historical period. A Microsoft Excel workbook is provided which tabulates quantiles of change factors derived from various downscaled climate datasets at grid cells closest to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida considering all the models and all the future emission scenarios evaluated as part of this project. The change factors were computed as the ratio of projected future to historical precipitation depths fitted to extreme precipitation data using a constrained maximum likelihood approach (CML) for Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), Localized Constructed Analogs) (LOCA) and Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) datasets, and a traditional maximum likelihood (ML) approach for the JupiterWRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) dataset. The quantiles of change factors are tabulated by duration (1, 3, and 7 days) and return period (5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years) for percentiles (non-exceedance probabilities) of 5, 16, 50, 84, and 95 percent considering all available models within each dataset and all the future emission scenarios evaluated. The emission scenarios evaluated include representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the downscaled climate datasets CORDEX, LOCA, and MACA. The emission scenarios evaluated for the JupiterWRF downscaled dataset include RCP8.5 from CMIP5, and shared socioeconomic pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Only daily durations are evaluated for JupiterWRF.

[
  "010:12"
]

[
  "geospatial"
]