Spreadsheet of quantiles of change factors at 174 NOAA Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida derived from various downscaled climate datasets considering all models, and the RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 future emission scenarios (CFquantiles_future_to_historical_all_models_RCP8.5.xlsx).

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed projected future change factors for precipitation depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves at 174 NOAA Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida. The change factors were computed as the ratio of projected future to historical extreme precipitation depths fitted to extreme precipitation data from various downscaled climate datasets using a constrained maximum likelihood (CML) approach. The change factors correspond to the period 2050-2089 (centered in the year 2070) as compared to the 1966-2005 historical period. A Microsoft Excel workbook is provided which tabulates quantiles of change factors derived from various downscaled climate datasets at grid cells closest to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida considering all the models and the RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 future emission scenarios. The change factors were computed as the ratio of projected future to historical precipitation depths fitted to extreme precipitation data using a constrained maximum likelihood approach (CML) for Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), Localized Constructed Analogs) (LOCA) and Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) datasets, and a traditional maximum likelihood (ML) approach for the JupiterWRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) dataset. The quantiles of change factors are tabulated by duration (1, 3, and 7 days) and return period (5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years) for percentiles (non-exceedance probabilities) of 5, 16, 50, 84, and 95 percent considering all available models within each dataset and the representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 and shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5-8.5 future emission scenarios. RCP8.5 belongs to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and is available for the downscaled climate datasets CORDEX, LOCA, MACA, and JupiterWRF. SSP5-8.5 belongs to the Couple Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) and is available only for JupiterWRF. Only daily durations are evaluated for JupiterWRF.

[
  "010:12"
]

[
  "geospatial"
]