Projections of vegetated area and vegetated plain elevation in Chesapeake Bay salt marsh units

Projections of vegetated area and vegetated plain elevation for salt marsh units within the Chesapeake Bay (CB) salt marsh complex are calculated using geospatial information for conceptual marsh units defined by Ackerman and others (2022) and Defne and others (2023). The projections are based on the UBMorph model, described in Ganju and others (2025), which estimates changes in areal cover and elevation due to open-water expansion and sea-level rise (SLR). Sea-level rise rate predictions are implemented at constant rates of 3, 5, 7, and 10 mm/y, beginning in 2010, along with two time-varying cases corresponding to a linear decadal increase in rate from 3 to 12 mm/y and an “upper end of likely range limit” scenario described by Ganju and others (2025). Through scientific efforts initiated with the Hurricane Sandy Science Plan, the U.S. Geological Survey has been expanding national assessment of coastal change hazards and forecast products to coastal wetlands, including the Chesapeake Bay salt marshes, with the intent of providing Federal, State, and local managers with tools to estimate the vulnerability and ecosystem service potential of these wetlands. For this purpose, the response and resilience of coastal wetlands to physical factors need to be assessed in terms of the ensuing change to their vulnerability and ecosystem services. References: Ackerman, K.V., Defne, Z., and Ganju, N.K., 2022, Geospatial characterization of salt marshes in Chesapeake Bay: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P997EJYB. Defne, Z., Ganju, N.K., and Ackerman, K.V., 2023, Lifespan of Chesapeake Bay salt marsh units: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9FSPWSF. Ganju, N.K., Ackerman, K.V., Defne, Z., Mariotti, G., Curson, D., Posnik, Z., Carr, J.A., and Grand, J., 2025, A Simple Predictive Model for Salt Marsh Internal Deterioration Under Sea-Level Rise and Sediment Deficits: Application to Chesapeake Bay: Estuaries and Coasts 48, 178, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-025-01618-w.

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  "010:12"
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  "geospatial"
]