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GeoClaw model output for downstream flood hazards post-hypothetical asteroid impact in four locations derived from the 2025 Planetary Defense Conference NASA PAIR Risk Corridor

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Metadata Last Checked: September 05, 2025 | Last Modified: 20250718
The flood model GeoClaw, a program that simulates shallow surface flows by solving the 2D depth-averaged shallow water equations for flow, was used to assess potential downstream flooding risk post-asteroid-impact. The examined hypothetical impact scenarios were derived from the NASA PAIR 2025 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) risk corridor during Epoch 1: impact energy averages between 5 – 70 Mt and impact date is predicted to be April 24, 2041. Flood depth and flow velocity data were generated for four impact scenarios in varying locations. GeoClaw does not model inundation due to precipitation, therefore a point-source (spring) is used with the intention of converting between spring flow and rainfall rates for data analysis in future publications. Two precipitation events with a duration of 3 days were tested at each location for a total of 8 GeoClaw model runs.

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