Figure 3. Historical (1981-2005) vs. Projected (2031-’55) Yields showing major crops and models reported in Arora et al Ag Econ submission

Historical (1981-2005) vs. Projected (2031-’55) Yields. Each year’s crop yields are calculated as an average of all counties in North and South Dakota. Hashed representations of projected yields are from RCP 4.5 emissions scenario from seven GCMs, namely CESM (Community Earth System Model), CNRM (Center National de Recherches Météorologiques (France)), GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), GISS (Goddard Institute of Space Studies), HADGEM (Hadley Global Environment Model), IPSL (Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (France)) and MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). Median projection in a given year is calculated by taking the median yield value of the yield projections from each of seven climate model outputs in each county and then taking the average across counties. We restrict spring wheat and alfalfa yield forecasts to zero for years in which these are projected to be negative values.

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