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Estimating Human Trafficking into the United States [Phase I: Development of a Methodology]

Published by National Institute of Justice | Department of Justice | Metadata Last Checked: June 25, 2025 | Last Modified: 2015-02-19T15:39:39
This research project developed and fully documented a method to estimate the number of females and males trafficked for the purposes of sexual and labor exploitation from eight countries (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela) into the United States at the Southwest border. The model utilizes only open source data. This research represents the first phase of a two-phase project and Provides a conceptual framework for identifying potential data sources to estimate the number of victims at different stages in traffickingDevelops statistical models to estimate the number of males and females at risk of being trafficked for sexual and labor exploitation from the eight countries, and the number of males and females actually trafficked for sex and laborIncorporates into the estimation models the transit journey of trafficking victims from the eight countries to the southwest border of the United StatesDesigns the estimation models such that they are highly flexible and modular so that they can evolve as the body of data expands Utilizes open source data as inputs to the statistical model, making the model accessible to anyone interested in using itPresents preliminary estimates that illustrate the use of the statistical methodsIlluminates gaps in data sources. The data included in this collection are the open source data which were primarily used in the models to estimate the number of males and females at risk of being trafficked.

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