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Ecological Potential Fractional Component Cover Based on Long-Term Satellite Observations Across the Western United States Version 2

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Metadata Last Checked: August 25, 2025 | Last Modified: 20250623
Rangelands have immense inherent spatial and temporal variability, yet assessments of land condition and trends are often assessed relative to the condition of a limited number of representative points or in some cases reference data is lacking. Ecological Potential (EP) data are spatially comprehensive and quantitative baseline for comparison of current rangeland vegetation conditions, trends, and management targets. We define EP as the potential fractional cover of components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, shrub, sagebrush, and tree) in the least disturbed and most productive spaces and times of western North America since 1985. This dataset enables: 1) setting realistic expectations for restoration and management targets at 30-meter resolution, 2) better understanding of the extent of vegetation departure from potential and 3) improved spatial understanding of vegetation composition and productivity variation. We produce EP maps across rangelands in western North America by training regression tree models in ecologically intact sites (low annual grass cover, no burn history, >60 m from roads, relatively low bare ground cover). Our primary independent variables for the EP model were Landsat composites representing the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile NDVI of the year (1985-2024) with the highest RCMAP total vegetation cover (i.e., tree + herbaceous + shrub cover). All spectral bands associated with the year of highest vegetation cover were used as input. Other independent variables in models included digital soils, topography data, and latitude/longitude. We calculate departures from EP cover predictions in the 2024 actual RCMAP cover. Next, we use a classification scheme to convert EP, 2024, and 1985 cover values into an 11-class thematic map. The study area encompasses all or part of 22 states and a vast range of biophysical conditions, vegetation conditions, and disturbance history. The region is 5,103,524 km2, of which 3,830,654 km2 was rangeland.

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